2012 Election Tracking Survey Update

2012 Presidential Election Survey Reflects Changing Opinions, Candidates

Maven Releases Results of Second Survey of Political Experts

SAN FRANCISCO, CA — August 23, 2011 – In the second in a series of 2012 presidential election surveys, Maven, the Global Knowledge Marketplace, again asked political experts: “who will win in 2012 and why?” The results reflect a changing political landscape as the election season begins to heat up.

The survey’s respondents included political consultants, lobbyists, and government relations professionals from Maven’s extensive microconsulting network.

The results show Barack Obama receiving 52 percent of the votes, down from 56 percent in the June. On the Republican side, Rick Perry’s recent entry into the race changed the landscape significantly: Mitt Romney, the leading Republican in the June survey, had his share of the vote decline from 28 percent to 20 percent, while Rick Perry jumped into the lead with 28 percent.

Surprisingly, no other Republican candidate, including Iowa straw poll winner Michelle Bachmann, received any votes from those surveyed.

“The Mavens we polled are politically savvy,” commented Maven Co-Founder and CEO Wyatt Nordstrom. “They are the people closest to the election with the greatest professional interest in the results, and they are not easily swayed. They understand that just because a candidate is the ‘flavor of the week’ doesn’t mean they’ll do well next November.”

Participants were also asked to comment on the reasons for their selections. Highlights include:

• Respondents predicting an Obama victory noted the highly fragmented Republican field, the influence of the Tea Party, a predicted recovery in the economy, and the President’s impressive fundraising machine as the key factors. As summarized by one participant:

You can’t beat somebody with nobody, and the GOP primary field is full of nobodies… President Obama may well get reelected… because the Republicans will fail to present a credible alternative.

Another respondent added:

With the choice of a Tea Party Republican or another Obama term, swing voters are likely to choose the latter.

• Others noted the nation’s continued economic difficulties and President Obama’s low approval rating as the primary drivers of a Republican victory in 2012:

Given the state of the economy and the unlikelihood of a significant change in the nation’s unemployment picture before November 2012, I believe a large number of independents in swing states will be looking for an alternative to President Obama.

• Individuals who believe Rick Perry will win in 2012 pointed to his executive experience and conservative credentials as the right combination to secure victory. As one respondent noted:

… a large number of independents in swing states will be looking for an alternative to President Obama. Of the current GOP field, Rick Perry seems best suited to balance appeal to the right-wing Republicans who vote in Presidential primaries with an ability to win support from an Establishment fundraising base.

• Conversely, those supporting Mitt Romney argued that his fiscal experience and moderate views would best capitalize on Obama’s weakness:

In the general election, Romney will be the choice of Republicans and independents. He will also appeal to more conservative Democrats and conservative Republicans will take a leap of faith that he is indeed a conservative.

• Finally, 16% of respondents noted that they voted for John McCain in 2008, but expect Obama to win again in 2012; likewise, 12% of respondents stated that they voted for Obama in 2008, but expect a Republican victory in 2012.

This is the second in a series of surveys conducted by Maven leading up to the election in November, 2012. Additional commentary and full results tracking are available at https://maven.socialsellinator.devm/blog/2011/08/23/2012/2012-survey-aug2011/.

If the news media is interested in speaking with the Mavens that participated in this poll, please contact Chuck Hester, PR Maven at chester@maven.co.

About Maven

Maven is a global network of industry professionals, thought leaders, and experts who seek to connect with others to share their knowledge. Maven’s proprietary “micro-consulting” platform allows members to participate in short duration telephone consultations and electronic surveys in exchange for direct compensation by Maven’s clients. For more information, please contact Chuck Hester, PR Maven, at chester@maven.co.